The programme contract: how the maximum price changes
The real calendar of new tariffs, counted over a year, and what it allows us to say about tomorrow.
Maximum prices for petroleum products in Belgium are set by the FPS Economy under the programme contract between the Belgian State and Energia, the petroleum sector federation. Its technical annex, dated 9 October 2006, makes the price follow international quotations for petroleum products; those quotations are paid for and not published, so nobody can recompute tomorrow’s official price in advance. Over the last 364 days of the be.STAT series, the maximum price of heating oil delivered in orders under 2,000 litres changed 243 times, 131 rises and 112 falls; a new tariff most often lands on a Thursday (98 % of Thursdays). Diesel B7 changed only 68 times. Until tomorrow’s tariff is published, this site shows an estimate: the last published price, framed by the range seen on the same weekday. Over 52 weeks it was off the actual tariff by 2.0 c a litre on average.
Does the price often change on that day?
Share of days with a new tariff
92 %
| Days observed | 52 |
| Rises / falls | 25 / 23 |
| Average change when it moves | €0.028/L |
Checked by Radif Partners · Editorial policy · Method and sources
An agreement between the State and the oil sector
The maximum price is not decided day by day by a minister. It flows from a programme contract, an agreement between the Belgian State and Energia, the oil sector federation, which the FPS Economy applies by publishing the official tariff. The Social Heating Fund spells out the two consequences for customers: the tariff sets a ceiling for each product, and selling above that ceiling is forbidden.
The calculation method is set out in a technical annex dated 9 October 2006. It makes the maximum price follow international quotations for petroleum products. Those quotations are paid for and not published: the public, the press and this site see the result, the tariff, but not the input figures. That is why nobody can recompute tomorrow’s official price in advance.
What the March 2026 bill shows
In spring 2026 a bill on the programme contract was tabled in the Chamber of Representatives. Bill DOC 56 1452/001 of 30 March 2026 quotes the official tariffs for two dates, 28 February and 27 March 2026, to show how quickly the maximum price tracks the markets.
| Product | 28 February 2026 | 27 March 2026 | Change per litre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil < 2,000 L | €0.8724 | €1.2958 | +42.3 c |
| Heating oil ≥ 2,000 L | €0.8322 | €1.2556 | +42.3 c |
| Diesel B7 | €1.758 | €2.163 | +40.5 c |
| 95 E10 | €1.634 | €1.863 | +22.9 c |
| 98 E5 | €1.723 | €1.929 | +20.6 c |
Within a month, the cap on heating oil delivered under 2,000 litres rose by 42.3 c a litre, or 49 %. On a 1,500-litre tank, the gap between those two dates comes to €635.
How often the maximum price changes
The series Statbel publishes on be.STAT makes it possible to count new tariffs day by day. The table sorts the last 364 days by the weekday on which a new price came into force, for heating oil under 2,000 litres and, for comparison, diesel B7.
| Day | Heating oil: new tariffs | Heating oil: share of days | Diesel B7: new tariffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0 / 52 | 0 % | 0 / 52 |
| Tuesday | 48 / 52 | 92 % | 11 / 52 |
| Wednesday | 46 / 52 | 88 % | 16 / 52 |
| Thursday | 51 / 52 | 98 % | 12 / 52 |
| Friday | 48 / 52 | 92 % | 15 / 52 |
| Saturday | 49 / 52 | 94 % | 13 / 52 |
| Sunday | 1 / 52 | 2 % | 1 / 52 |
For heating oil, the busiest day is Thursday: 51 out of 52 Thursdays brought a new tariff. On Monday and Sunday, by contrast, the price almost never changes: the previous day’s tariff usually carries over. Diesel follows quite another rhythm, with 68 changes over the year against 243 for heating oil. The small calculator at the top runs the same count for any product and day you pick.
Rises, falls and their size
Over the year heating oil saw 131 rises and 112 falls. When it changes, it moves by €0.030 a litre on average. One day in ten the change is below −3.1 c, and one in ten above +3.5 c: most steps are small, but they add up. On 1,500 litres, an average move is worth €45 on the bill. The heating oil price history page shows how these small steps drew the year’s curve.
Why tomorrow can only be estimated
A new tariff is published before it takes effect: once tomorrow’s price is known, the heating oil price tomorrow page shows that official tariff. Until then, no public source makes it possible to calculate it. A site announcing “tomorrow’s price” before publication is therefore giving an estimate at best, and ought to say so. Here, every such figure carries that label and is replaced by the official tariff as soon as it appears.
How this site estimates the next unpublished day
The estimate does not pretend to read the market. It starts from the last published tariff, used as the central value, and frames it with the range of changes seen on the same weekday over a year, between the first and ninth deciles. It also gives the probability that a new tariff takes effect that day, from the same year of observations. For 4 November 2026, the next day without a published tariff, that gives a central value of €1.578, a range of €1.545 to €1.614 and a probability of change of 88 %.
Why start from the last price rather than a trend? Because, measured on the series, it is the estimator that errs least. Over 364 days, the average gap between the last published tariff and the next day’s official tariff was 2.0 c a litre, and the gap stayed under one cent 52 % of the time. Over the last four weeks it was 2.3 c. For diesel B7, which changes less often, the yearly average error drops to 1.2 c. The method page sets out these calculations.
The limits, in black and white
The range describes what happened, not what will happen. A turbulent week on the markets can produce a bigger move than any other in the year, and the estimate will not see it coming. It never replaces the official tariff; it gives an order of magnitude to anyone who must decide today on an order delivered tomorrow. For what the cap rule actually says, see the guide to the maximum price of heating oil; for road fuels, the same logic applies to tomorrow’s diesel price.