When to order heating oil: what the data say
No market forecast here: the official history, what it shows and what it does not allow you to conclude.
Nobody knows what the maximum price of heating oil will be in a month, and the official history does not predict it. What it can do is measure how past choices would have turned out. On 31 October 2026 a litre delivered in orders under 2,000 litres is capped at €1.578, above its average over the last 365 days (€1.166), within a range of €0.747 to €1.650. Over that year, waiting 30 days before ordering lowered the bill in 41 % of cases; on 1,500 litres the average effect of that wait was +€95. Statbel’s monthly averages show no reliable seasonal pattern: the same month of November cost €0.868 in 2024 and €1.578 in 2026. The surest lever is volume: moving up to 2,000 litres changes the price per litre by −4.3 c.
Waiting before ordering: gain or loss?
Average effect of waiting over a year
+€21
| Waits that lowered the bill | 41 % |
| Worst case | +€357 |
| Best case | −€444 |
| Periods compared | 355 |
The past does not predict the price: this only shows what waiting would have done over the last 365 days.
Checked by Radif Partners · Editorial policy · Method and sources
What the last 365 days show
The maximum price of heating oil delivered in orders under 2,000 litres is €1.578 on 31 October 2026. Over a year it fell as low as €0.747 on 9 January 2026 and rose as high as €1.650 on 28 October 2026, for an average of €1.166. Today’s price therefore stands 41.2 c above that average. Over 30 days the change is +5.9 c a litre. The full curve and the price on any date are on the heating oil price history page.
These figures come from the official series published by Statbel on be.STAT. They describe what has been, nothing more: knowing the price is above its average does not mean it will come down.
Waiting: what it actually did
The most common instinct is to wait for a fall. The small calculator at the top does the sum for your own volume; the table below does it for 1,500 litres, comparing every day of the year with the price 7 and 30 days later.
| Wait | Cases where the bill fell | Average effect | Worst case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 41 % | +€21 | +€357 | −€444 |
| 30 days | 41 % | +€95 | +€945 | −€590 |
In that year, waiting lost more often than it gained, but the gap between the best and worst cases mostly shows how big the gamble is. A nearly empty tank cannot wait: going without heating to save a few cents makes no sense, and an urgent delivery leaves little room to compare offers.
The seasons: less clear-cut than people think
You often hear that the tank should be filled in summer. Statbel’s monthly averages make it possible to check this over two years.
| Month | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | – | €0.930 | €0.784 |
| February | – | €0.921 | €0.829 |
| March | – | €0.857 | €1.225 |
| April | – | €0.791 | €1.394 |
| May | – | €0.767 | €1.265 |
| June | – | €0.824 | €1.090 |
| July | – | €0.861 | €1.229 |
| August | – | €0.811 | €1.342 |
| September | – | €0.829 | €1.535 |
| October | – | €0.813 | – |
| November | €0.868 | €0.885 | €1.578 |
| December | €0.879 | €0.781 | – |
Over the last twelve published months, the cheapest month was December 2025 (€0.781) and the dearest November 2026 (€1.578). Summer averaged €1.220 a litre and winter €0.798. Yet from one year to the next the same month can turn out completely differently: November went from €0.868 in 2024 to €1.578 in 2026. The maximum price follows international quotations for petroleum products, and what happens there weighs more than the Belgian heating season. Two years of data are not enough to claim that one month is structurally cheaper than another.
Yearly averages
| Year | Average maximum price | Cost of 1,500 litres |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | €0.901 | €1,352 |
| 2025 | €0.839 | €1,259 |
| 2026 | €1.234 | €1,851 |
The yearly averages are a reminder that a year’s budget depends first on the general price level, which no household controls. To price your own consumption, the heating oil budget page applies these averages to your litres.
The day of the week
The tariff changes often, but not at any time. Over a year, 98 % of Sundays and 100 % of Mondays kept the previous day’s price. For the rest of the week a new tariff is the rule rather than the exception; the guide to the programme contract gives the full count. This rhythm does not say whether the next change will be a rise or a fall, so it cannot be used to pick a sure winning day.
Volume matters more than the date
Unlike the market, the volume band is a lever you control. On 31 October 2026 a litre delivered in orders of 2,000 litres or more is capped at €1.535, against €1.578 below that. Ordering 2,000 litres at once rather than in two 1,000-litre deliveries cuts the maximum that can be billed by €86. The calculation assumes a tank that is large enough; the heating oil 2,000 litres page shows from what volume it is worth topping up to the threshold.
The allowance calendar
For households that may qualify for the Social Heating Fund allowance, the timing of delivery has two effects. Support is capped per calendar year, so a January delivery counts towards the new year. And the application must reach the energy unit of the municipal CPAS/OCMW within 60 days of delivery, with the form and copies of the invoice and identity card, according to the Fund’s how to apply page. The amount is worked out on the heating allowance page.
What the data do not say
They do not say where the price will go tomorrow or next week. Nor do they say what your dealer will charge, since dealers may stay below the cap. What they do is put numbers on a decision: today’s price against the past year, the real cost of past waiting, the gap between the two bands. Before ordering, a look at tomorrow’s heating oil price shows whether a new tariff has already been published.